The 2008 Presidential Election The Student Voice

The Pennsylvania primary preview

2008-04-20T12:11:00.000-07:00

Education. Health care. The economy. Voters.

We heard these words in the opening statements from Sens. Clinton and Obama at the Democratic debate in Philadelphia last Wednesday — but don't be fooled. The debate's primary concern, the moderators made clear, was to hash out other, more important issues: Was Hillary really dodging sniper fire in Bosnia, and why doesn't Barack like his flag pin?

Keith Olbermann called this first debate in 7 weeks "startlingly tabloid," but multiple commentators and thousands of viewers gave moderators George Stephanopoulos and Charles Gibson both a deserved amount of criticism for what they believed was a petty opening round of questions.

Issues like Rev. Wright and the "religion and guns" remark were slung at Obama, while Clinton took hits for her ego and trustworthiness. All in all, the initial trivia (as in trivial) questions ate up the first 30 minutes of the 90-minute debate. It was only after the first commercial break that we finally get a moderator to combine the word "Iraq" with a question mark.

With the Pennsylvania primary so close, the debate really could have — and should have — offered the voters more. It's generally accepted that Clinton will take the primary (she consistently lead state polls in the double digits until March), but the same was said about Ohio and Texas. And like then, her numbers have made a slow and steady decline leading up to Election Day.

She could have used the oppurtunity to make a solid case on a statewide platform on issues that really matter to Pennsylvanians; instead she nodded along to Stephanopoulos' question about Obama's obscure connection to the radical group the Weather Underground, agreeing that it was a very thoughtful question. But then, I guess it's not really surprising to think that cheap shots might be her only chance at taking back her 16 point lead in the state. Yet again we have another do-or-die election for the Clinton camp.

And on the other side, McCain finds himself with a lot of spare time. I can't see Pennsylvania primary crystallizing either Democratic candidate, so I imagine it'll be a relaxing summer for John. He's currently trying to court his allusive conservative base by laying out a firm and convincing economic plan, and is visiting states outside the traditional GOP boundaries, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to FOX News. He also seems to be mulling over his vice presidential pick as slowly as possible.

Columnists and commentators keep talking about McCain's top prospects, but listening to their responses makes him seem like the prom date nobody wanted:

"I don’t want to be, don’t intend to be, won’t be on the ticket," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told the Associated Press last week. Many said that a McCain-Rice ticket would be a sure dream ticket for Republicans.

"For the 900th time, I am not running for vice president," said Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, a young conservative that many saw as the perfect balancing partner for McCain.

All that's missing is "I wouldn't run with John McCain if he was the last president on Earth."

To me an exciting prospect on the field is New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. According to a UK Guardian article, Bloomberg had potential to run for president as an independent, but all hopes were dashed when McCain won over the majority of what would have been his base. Bloomberg's economic prowess would serve anyone well as a vice president, but for the time being he has "a stance of political neutrality by keeping his hands in his lap" throughout the speeches by Obama, Clinton and McCain.

2008-04-12T12:15:00.000-07:00

Vice President Cheney goes flyfishing...

2008-04-12T12:07:00.000-07:00

Something that should make Obama fans cringe.

I'm surprised to say I actually agree with a statement from Sen. McCain's camp:

"It shows an elitism and condescension toward hardworking Americans that is nothing short of breathtaking."

Gov. Richardson edorses Obama

2008-03-22T11:22:00.000-07:00

It seems like there's a new death knell every week in the Clinton-Obama race, but here's one more chiming in: Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, who dropped out of the Democratic presidential race in January, threw his support to Sen. Barack Obama at a rally in Portland, Oregon Friday.

His choice comes just days after Obama's speech on American race issues and politics, and Richardson spent much of his endorsement announcment praising Obama for making a brave and bold statement on the nation's racial divisions.

"Senator Obama could have given a safer speech," Richardson said. "He spoke to us as adults. He asked us to ponder the reign of our racially divided past [and] to rise above it."

Richardson's endorsements praised Obama's stances on economic policy, stance on the Iraqi war, and global leadership potential, calling him a "once in a lifetime leader."

YouTube brings down Obama

2008-03-20T11:13:00.000-07:00

The mighty sword of YouTube hath again fallen: This time on Sen. Barack Obama. 

Sermon recordings of Obama’s longtime pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, that surfaced on YouTube have have caused a storm of controversy over issues of race and patriotism that have dogged the Obama campaign from the beginning. Only after increased political and media pressure did Obama speak in detail on the Reverend’s defamatory remarks.

Rev. Wright’s statements quickly became sensational sound bites syndicated by media outlets. His more startling statements were that the government released the AIDS virus to kill blacks, and his now-infamous line that “God damn America” for its treatment of the black community.

In a speech compared to the oration of Martin Luther King, Jr., John Kennedy and Abraham Lincoln, Obama addressed the press corps in Philidelphia on race in politics Tuesday morning, saying that only recently had the topic led the campaign down a “particularly divisive” road. The speech also served to put Obama at a far distance from Rev. Wright’s social commentary.

“The fact is,” Obama said, “that the comments that have been made and the issues that have surfaced over the last few weeks reflect the complexities of race in this country that we’ve never really worked through — a part of our Union that we have yet to perfect.”  

While the Obama campaign has tried to stay decidedly separate from race issues, his speech was hailed as the boldest confrontation by a politician on race problems in America in decades, it hasn’t helped his numbers recover.

Reaction has not all been positive, however. Geraldine Ferrraro, who this month resigned from Hillary Clinton’s finance committee over criticisms of her perceivably racist comments against Barack Obama.

“If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position," Ferraro told the Torrance-based Daily Breeze in a March 7 article. “And if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept.”

Obama singled out her comments on his list of racial criticisms during his speech.

“We can dismiss Reverend Wright as a crank or a demagogue,” Obama said in his speech. “Just as some have dismissed Geraldine Ferraro, in the aftermath of her recent statements, as harboring some deep-seated racial bias.”

Ferraro objected to the mention, saying that her comments did not bear the same sentiments as Rev. Wright’s.

“To equate what I said with what this racist bigot has said from the pulpit is unbelievable,” Ferraro said the day after Obama’s spoke. “He gave a very good speech on race relations, but he did not address the fact that this man is up there spewing hatred.”

Some were irked and some were inspired, but the numbers speak for themselves. Even after Obama’s speech Tuesday, his numbers have been on the decline.

The backlash from Rev. Wright’s statements chipped away at his percentage points these past weeks. According to AFP, the latest Gallup poll as of last Thursday puts Sen. Hillary Clinton ahead by a seven-point lead nationally over Obama, 49 percent to 42 percent — her first statistically significant lead over Obama in more than a month.

Polls on RealClearPolitics.com also placed Clinton as a near-lock to win the keystone state, Pennsylvania, putting her at a 16 percent lead ahead of Obama.

You can view Obama's speech here, and excerpts from Reverend Wright's sermons here.

McCain takes GOP nomination; Huckabee is out

2008-03-04T19:42:00.000-08:00

Arizona Senator John McCain seizes Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island primaries, and will be the 2008 Republican Presidential nominee. His only formidable competition Mike Huckabee subsequently ends his campaign.

The "Big Mo" pushes Obama ahead in Texa$

2008-03-02T21:24:00.000-08:00

Momentum.
The "Big Mo," as one CNN political analyst put it, is what pushed Sen. Barack Obama to lead in the Texas polls this weekend, and it may cost Sen. Hillary Clinton the Democratic nomination tomorrow. Obama now maintains a (narrow) lead in Texas, and is catching up to Clinton's numbers in Ohio according to realclearpolitics.com. McCain still commands a dominating lead over Huckabee and Paul, and actually took some time off at his Arizona home.

Democratic candidates turned up the heat last week for (what seems to be the third or fourth) final push for delegates, with some important developments:

The Clinton campaign reported $35 million in fundraising dollars for the month of February, while speculation on the Obama camp places their mark at over $50 million.
Obama has outspent Clinton for advertising by $1.3 million in Ohio, and by $2.3 million in Texas, according to the New York Times.
Something something, placeholder.

This ad, which hints at, oh say, nuclear war and the president we would want to save us, drew Clinton some criticism:

To which Obama responded:

Obama's hot list

2008-02-23T10:35:00.000-08:00

He's The Associated Press' projected winner for this year's primary election, and the forecast gets gloomier by the day for Mrs. Clinton, so I think it's time to discuss the potential Vice Presidential running mates for Barack Obama, this time based on articles by a Washington Post blogger's picks and an AP article:

Bill Richardson or John Edwards
Both of these campaign dropouts have yet to throw an endorsement to either Barack or Hillary, who would be happy to have it — according to a recent New York Times article, Richardson receives daily phone calls from the two campaigns just for a "check in." Either would also make a viable running mate for Obama; Edwards' age would reinforce his the 'changing of the guard' theme, while Richardson's Hispanic background might help to sway the critical southwest votes.

Kathleen Sebelius
I checked more than a couple of articles for this list, and Kathy's name consistently popped up. She served in the House of Representatives for Kansas for 8 years, later became the state's Insurance Commissioner, and is currently the governor. Her main appeal to Obama would be her ability to hold a following among Republicans the way she has with Kansas — the state usually swings for Republican presidential candidates, but Mrs. Sebelius is a Democrat who was not only elected, but re-elected as governor. She'll also appease the independent feminists enough to keep them from voting for McCain.

Tim Kaine
In April of 2007 Kaine flew to Japan for a trade conference, only to fly right back once news broke of the Virginia Tech massacre. As the governor of Virginia, he showed the nation his leadership abilities when he created his own investigation panel, and had filled in the gaps of Virginia gun legislation two weeks after the incident. Impressive? He's backed Obama from the beginning, and also holds a Democrat seat in a typically Republican state, which might prove to be a swing in 2008.

Joe Manchin
Whenever a mineshaft collapsed in West Virginia, Joe was there — he's been the governor since 2004, and saw his approval rating soar for his handlings of mine safety issues and legislation in The Mountain State. Considered a moderate by Democrat standards, Manchin also hails from a state that's usually allotted to the Republican president and could help Obama in conservative Appalachia. On a tour of Iraq with four other governors, Manchin caused controversy when he authographed a missle, "Sending you to hell! From Almost Heaven W.Va."

Jim Webb

Another Virginian, this time a junior senator. The former Secretary of the Navy under President Reagan and a decorated Vietnam war veteran, Webb claimed his seat in 2006 by a thin (0.5%) margin that swung the Senate to the Democrats.
At a White House reception for newly elected members of Congress, Webb caused a stir by refusing to have his picture taken with the president. When Bush asked how his son (a Marine serving in Iraq) was doing, Webb replied: “I’d like to get them out of Iraq, Mr. President.”

Janet Napolitano
Only a recent advocate of Obama, Napolitano is a former U.S. Attorney and current governor of Arizona. As the most prominent Democrat in Arizona, analysts have picked her out as a 'maybe' for a number of positions, including a cabinet position in a Democratic administration, or even John McCain's seat on the Senate in 2010. Her selling point is her point of origin. Arizona is a strongly Republican state, and might not go so easily to McCain if she ran in a national election.

Crunch time for Clinton

2008-02-23T09:36:00.000-08:00

To stay alive in this race, she'll need to win Texas and Ohio by by 30% margins.

According to NBC political analyst Chuck Todd, Hillary Clinton needs to win 65% of the vote in the upcoming primaries, or she's toast. If the numbers are right, Sen. Barack Obama is set to continue his winning streak by taking Vermont, Mississippi, North Carolina and Oregon, making the Ohio and especially Texas delegates critical to the Clinton campaign.

She's doing decently in Texas with a 2 point edge, and currently leads in Ohio by about 8 points according to RealClearPolitics.com.

The Texas and Ohio primaries are scheduled for March 4.

Needs a VeeP: McCain scans the field

2008-02-17T16:41:00.001-08:00

With his GOP nomination nearly cinched, political analysts are looking ahead at possible running mate candidates for John McCain. While his headquarters are keeping his selections private, today I'll attempt to profile some whispered names based on a recent Telegraph article.

Mike Huckabee
Wondering why he outstayed Giuliani, Thompson and Romney? Speculation has it that he's given up on presidential aspirations, and hopes to secure the VP nomination by showing his solid base with social conservatives. It would definitely be a major selling point for McCain, roundly criticized by the Right for his lax conservative record.

Tim Pawlenty
Who? He's the 47-year-old governor of Minnesota, and like Mike, his record is pretty appealing to McCain. and is actually more attractive with a stronger conservatism in his economic policy. His age, almost 25 years McCain's junior, would be competitive to Obama's youth appeal.

Charlie Crist
Nicknamed "Chain Gang Charlie" for his support of chain gang prison labor during his time on the Florida Senate, Crist might be John McCain's best prospect. A former Attorney-General and currently the Governor of Florida, Crist's campaigning helped McCain win the Florida primary over Romney and Giuliani.

Mark Sanford
A real family-man, he's South Carolina's former 1st district Congressman and, surprise, is now it's governor. He also fits the theme of our middle-aged staunch conservatives, but with a one-up: He's an Eagle Scout.

Kay Bailey Hutchison
The Kay is short for Kathyrn — That's right, the Republicans have also lined up a female first for 2008. She was the first woman elected to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate in 1993, and has held the position ever since. Her voting record is pretty solid by GOP standards, only with moderate leanings on abortion.

Bobby Jindal
The Republican answer to Barack Obama. Governor No. 5, this time from Louisiana, would be the first Asian American in office. Born to Punjabi Indian immigrants in Baton Rouge, Jindal converted to Catholicism in his college years and has been a die-hard conservative ever since. Rush Limbaugh calls him "the next Ronald Reagan."

Dirty and getting dirtier

2008-02-15T16:01:00.000-08:00

Wisconsin has turned into a battleground this week for Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, who are now locked in a heated contest to win the state and its delegate count, the biggest for the remainder of February at 92.

It came after a surge in the Obama campaign, which has taken seven primaries since Super Tuesday. It puts Obama with a total of 934 to and Clinton with 892. The Associated press is predicting Obama to finish with 1,275 delegates and Clinton with 1,220.

Upcoming primaries/caucuses and their delegate counts:

Feb. 19: Hawaii (29), Wisconsin (92)

Mar. 4: Vermont (23), Rhode Island (32), Ohio (161), Texas (228)

I like them better like this

2008-02-11T17:10:00.000-08:00

The wax figures of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama at Madam Tussauds Wax Museum in Washington, D.C.

So long, Romney. We'll miss you.

2008-02-07T15:41:00.000-08:00

Well really, some people might. I myself am not terribly bothered that Gov. Romney decided to bow out after the results of Super Tuesday. For those of you who are apathetic to the finer details, about a week after the Tuesday polls and McCain totals at 723 delegates, with Romney trailing at a disappointing 286. and Huckabee at 217. He announced Thursday afternoon he would be putting his campaign on hold, and essentially cleared the Republican nomination for McCain.

He would have been our first Mormon president (neat!), carried about 90 percent of the vote in Utah on Super Tuesday (cool!) and denounced secular government at a town hall meeting in Plano, Texas (bad).

But, personally, I'll always remember Mr. Romney for a disgusting story that circulated through the newsroom involving a family roadtrip, an Irish setter, and the roof of a car.

Super Monday

2008-01-28T13:21:00.000-08:00

Welcome to the launch of 49er's Vote in 2008, where you'll find campaign updates from the average and idle student's point-of-view.

While there's a good number of national sources to go to for your election coverage (my personal recommendation being The Countdown with Keith Olbermann) this blog will keep readers informed on student-significant developments, as well as anything deemed buzzworthy by its author.

Before we head off to the Super Tuesday voting booths, I’ve picked something with both buzz and political import — a flirtatious exchange between Senators Clinton and Obama at the end of Thursday’s Democratic debate in Hollywood.

Moderator and CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer finished the debate (recently diminished to two candidates) with the “can’t we all just get along?” question, asking if we might see a VP tap for the primary’s runner-up.

The two hinted that, pending the results of Super Tuesday, an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket would not be an entirely bad idea. Neither committed to a partnership, but this year’s greatest political rivalry agreed in their Presidential PR-speak that both might remain in the race on a unified ticket.

The news could only have brought a wave of relief to the Democratic community, which has been torn decisively between the two candidates.

Calling them the “Dream Team,” CNN’s Carol Costello went as far as to say it might “guarantee a win” for the Democratic Party.

But as Barack put it, there’s a very big difference between the possible ticket names.

Riding high with recent endorsements from Ted and Caroline Kennedy, Obama argued for his ability to lead on a platform similar to their elder legacy President John Kennedy, and promises to lead the nation and with his trademark “We can do it!” attitude. Clinton No. 2 is playing the experience card, with a little Obama positivism mixed in for strategy’s sake. But who should get the power seat?

Democrats couldn’t really complain either way with such a favorably lopsided election, not to mention this new ‘split the prize’ twist between such vocal opponents.

It kind of sucks the drama out of the election. Then real challenge now lies at the feet of John McCain, who currently leads the polls for Repbulicans, and whether or not he can carry New Millennium conservatism past the aughts into the next decade.

To draw from his Straight Talk Express lingo, ‘it’s gonna be tough.’ While McCain’s campaign has gained momentum from victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina, coupled with endorsements from his fallen Republican competitor Rudy Giuliani and California’s own Governator, he still faces critics on both sides of the aisle. Conservative flag bearer and columnist Ann Coulter has criticized both McCain and Giuliani (and to some extent every other Republican contender) as moderates on the right-wing spectrum. Political analysts expect that if McCain is to pull out a victory in November, he won’t find it with a traditional Republican base.

But he won’t. The debate’s finale question left me with a one hand washes the other impression of the race, to the point that I couldn’t expect too many surprises or tooth-and-nail clashes come Tuesday. It’s been basically reduced to a call for shotgun between Clinton and Obama.